Not even Elon can save EVs from disaster

Western policy on decarbonisation seems to be driven more by emotion and boosterism than by what is technologically feasible

Never was the old adage “don’t buy the prototype, buy the redesign” more appropriate. Motorists who bought an electric vehicle in the belief that it would hold its value better than a petrol or diesel must be feeling a little sore. According to the AA, the secondhand values of the 20 most popular electric and hybrid cars was down 12 per cent in the first quarter of this year compared with the first quarter of 2023. That is the drop in value of like-for-like cars, not what buyers can expect to lose in depreciation over the first year.    
In some cases the fall has been far greater. According to a recent survey by Cap Hpi, the value of a one year old Peugeot e-2008 with 10,000 miles on the clock fell 38.7 per cent between January  and December 2023.
The tide has turned for Tesla, too, as it runs out of well-off, eco-conscious motorists interested in buying its vehicles. In the three months to March it sold 386,810 vehicles, down from 422,875 in the same period in 2023. Tesla shares plunged seven per cent on the news – although given that the company’s market valuation is still nearly twice that of the world’s second most valuable carmaker, Toyota, no one should be confident of a rebound any time soon.      
I have nothing against electric cars, which have already found a niche as city cars for people with the good fortune to have private driveways. If battery technology develops to the point at which electric cars can travel 500 miles on a single charge and take 10 minutes to recharge they will start to sell themselves, without motorists being forced to buy them through government mandates.
Indeed, that will be the point at which I will happily dump my diesel and go pure electric. But the promotion of electric cars over the past few years has been a triumph of hype over reality – which not even Elon Musk has been able to overcome.  
EVs have been pushed at us on a promise that they have been unable to fulfil. A surge in interest from wealthy people who like to show off their environmental credentials was mistaken for an inexorable market trend towards EVs. As it happens, the share of the market held by pure electric cars has stalled at around one in six.
The result has been an awful lot of burned fingers – and not just among motorists. Western governments continue to try to subsidise their way to a native mass-market in EV battery production, when it is quite clear that China has cornered that market and it is not coming back. It isn’t big battery plants that Europe should be investing in, but research and development facilities where we can work on better battery technology. If successful, they can be licensed around the world.
Unfortunately, Western policy on decarbonisation seems to be driven more by emotion than cold, hard reasoning. Much of it has been based on the fantasy that all you need to do is to set a few targets and affordable technology will magically appear in order to help you reach those targets – and that it will be the countries who are the fastest movers in setting targets who will benefit.
Sadly, it has not quite worked out that way.  China has been the biggest winner – and UK buyers of pricey electric cars among the biggest losers.